The Russian economy is rapidly leaving the crisis and very soon will get back to the path of growth. Such is an official position of the government. The population was promised an increase of the welfare. At the same time the experts, quizzed by Lenta.ru, have doubts, that Russian economy is able to emerge from the bottom so soon.
The worst is behind
The worst for the Russian economy is now behind, thinks the first vise-premier Ygor Shuvalov. He is sure, that Russian economy is prepared for service and next year will show growth around 1%.
Besides, the authorities think, that drop in income of the Russians is over. In 2017 prosperity growth will turn into «a tendency for all groups of the population».
The official has also declared, that financial system of Russia is stabilizing and strengthening. «The bank sector is becoming stronger. Insurance companies are enjoying the period of new insurance market formation. (…) All financial and bank systems are becoming significantly more stable», - he pointed out.
The Great financial freeze.
The official position of the government is clear – the economy started from the bottom and is gradually emerging to the surface. But will the quality of life of the Russians and their income level greatly change, if GDP in the next following years will demonstrate sluggish growth? Lenta.tu addressed this question to the experts.
Anatoly Aksakov, the Chairman of the Duma Committee on financial market:
«Yes, we can say, that economic turn has happened. From the third quarter the situation has been developing in a positive direction. We witnessed industrial growth, even more significant one – in the agricultural sector. The situation with real income of the population is as well changing towards positive side, salaries are advancing inflation rate, albeit not by much. Obviously, next year we will witness economic growth. It is taking its toll on the situation on a capital market as well. For the first time in recent years, MICEX rate has exceeded 2000 points.
I think, the key factor – adaptation of economy to low oil prices and the sanctions. When economy is in the crisis, internal regrouping always takes place. Any organism, and economy is a living organism, mobilizes its internal resources in order to conquer the disease.
Oil prices stabilization has played its role too, by today's standards on quite a high level – $50 per barrel. In the budget were included $40. But anyway, the main point is adjusting of economy to the new conditions».
Yakov Mirkin, head of the Department of international capital markets of the Institute of world economy and international relations of the Russian Academy of science:
«Surely, top government echelons have to organize positive expectations. Phycology is very important for the economic growth. But it’s necessary to provide something else to stimulate growing inside the economy.
Still, the picture is the same as a year ago. Russian economy is completely derived from world prices of raw materials, dollar rate, physical demand for the fuel. Global finances are very volatile. Volatility can increase because of active politics of the new American President. A complete uncertainty is outside the window, that is able to lead to victorious rapports or, on the contrary, cause a new wave of crisis.
Inside, the economy is living in the situation of a great financial freeze, overrated interests, very high rate of the Central Bank, of a physically, at par, decreasing budget. Hard taxes and the growing regulatory burden. Of course, out of the approach «the ill, heal yourself» we can see the stabilization, but also we can see, that the disease is still chronicle, in severe stage, with falling income. All this can be affected by overvalued ruble, especially in the sphere of commodity companies. The forecast – «in a haphazard way. There is a shortage of real tools for improving of economic situation».
Sergey Hestanov, councilor on macroeconomics of general director of the brokerage house «Otkrytie»:
«The best epigraph on this topic is – «our market has reached the bottom and started to dig». I’ve got an allergy on our officials. Once they say something on the topic of the bottom, you’ve got to be ready for the tumble.
In fact, they are partly right, that increment of decries of Russian economy is slowing down. At the cost of cost reduction on all levels – state, regions, corporations and households – our economy is adjusting. But there is an important stipulation – if there are no foreign economic shocks. Then, it’s very likely, that next year we will reach a local balance and even show a slight growth.
But what comes to salaries, I would be more careful. There’s a shadow economy – the characteristic that is hard to analyze. The characteristic indirectly related to salaries, such as retail turnover, is much easier to analyze. Looking at it, we will see that the year has been very harsh.
The trade has lost 15% of turnover. Yes, the economy from the customer’s point of view, has adapted to a great degree. But acknowledging this fact confidently we will be able no sooner than turnover decline shows us zero and will remain in such state a quarter or two.
It’s not improbable, that people are actively saving up. But this active saving up – under equal conditions – is a behavior of a scared customer, who is afraid of further worsening of the situation and thinks that we haven’t reached the bottom. We have to wait when this fear steps aside.»
Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at financial group BKS:
«I agree, that the economy is close to stabilization and that next year the growth will revive. But the main question is not in stabilizing, neither it is in low speed of GDP growth. The main thing is what authorities will carry out in order to raise an economic growth rate, provide increase of citizens’ welfare, and increase economical resistance to outer shocks. To this question, unfortunately, there is no answer – the future economic program is very unclear.»
Copyright © 2005- Enquiry Service of Legal Entities LLC.
All rights reserved.