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Putin promises stability of economy, but doesn’t bode income growth to the citizens


Situation in Russian economy has normalized, but it’s early to talk about drastic improvement. This supposes Russian president Vladimir Putin. Overall, everything seems to be getting better – inflation is decreasing, budget gap will be on the planned level, production, at least in agricultural sphere, is growing. Independent experts, including ex prime minister of finances Aleksey Kudrin, agree with the head of the government. They even predict double GDP growth. But only by 2035. So, for the next 20 years even with this increasing of that figure, it’s unlikely that real income of the citizens will increase, and it might even be the opposite – it will become lower than now.

At a regular meeting for economic issues in Kremlin Vladimir Putin didn’t say anything new. “The situation in Russian economy is stable”, - comforted he his deputy Andrey Belousov, minister of economy Anton Siluanov, first deputy chairman of the government Igor Shuvalov, the head of Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina and the minister of industry and trade Denis Manturov.

“Based on the results of three quarters is noted a slight growth of industrial production – on 0,3%. Good speed is demonstrated by agricultural sector – plus 3%. We have all reasons to compliment the farmers on this result , this good job”,- said the head of the State.

The same facts the day before in their regular review placed the specialists of the Institute for statistical studies and Economics of knowledge of High school of Economics. Despite of the fact that in September ROSSTAT noted a slight slowdown in industry (on 0,8%), positive tendency remains.

However, in general the High School of Economics experts are not so optimistic, they suppose, that based on the evaluation of “macroeconomic situation, including state budget imbalance, there are no premises for the beginning of stable growth of industrial production in the view.” It will force the industry in the following 1,5-2 years remain in stagnation zone.

These are not just words. They are proved by statistics. Stability in economy, that Russia has reached this year, in general was the merit of extractive industries. In particular, OPEC in the beginning of November has improved the forecast on oil production in our country on 12 thousand barrels a day comparing with October forecast and on 200 thousand barrels comparing with 2015.

At the same time the manufacturing and distribution industries can’t brag comparable success – they are still at a minus on 5%.

Especially this emphasized Vladimir Putin, claiming that such industries as construction and manufacturing are not yet able to get positive speed of growth, and suggested to discuss supportive measures for these sectors. “The State has to consolidate positive trends and screw up lame-duck industries”, - noted Russian President.

But frankly speaking, all these achievements and possible measures, that have to get to the sectors where negative dynamics is stated, effect ordinary citizens only vicariously. They are interested in other problems. Mainly, in their salaries. And the situation with them it’s not so cheerful. According to the High School of Economics, September has become the 23rd month in a row, when real income of the citizens were decreasing. In the fourth quarter of this yea, by preliminary ROSSTAT evaluations, losses in real incomes of citizens compared to last year amounted to 6,1%, and in general at the 9 months end – 5,3%.

All this is saying, that many citizens of our country, that were feeling not so badly in the status of an average Russian, might make panhandlers. “A sustain retreat of real income of the population combined with decreasing of social expenditures, also strengthening of negative trends in labor market, might negatively affect social well-being of the population and perk up social tension”, - state the experts of HSE.

According to the social-economic development forecast on 2017-2019, documented in Duma, population size with cash earnings below poverty line will increase in 2017 to 13,9%, and in 2018 to 14,1%. Thus, it is predicted, that by 2019 approximately 20,5 million people of our country will get an income below the subsistence minimum and in fact, be below the poverty line.

It is hoped, that will come true the forecast of Center of strategic elaborations, the head of which is ex minister of finance Aleksey Kudrin. According to this forecast, economy of Russia has to grow in two times. But only by 2035 year. It isn’t difficult to calculate, that if inflation amounts to 5,6%, as supposed this year (strangely, it’s one of the best indexes through all modern history of Russia), salaries even with the same growth will not significantly affect the living standards and from the line below poverty we will be separated by the same single step.

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