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Analysts told what improvement in Russian economy is related to


Improvement of dynamics of macroeconomic figures in Russia is related to growth of oil production and export, however, the situation in different spheres varies a lot, supposes the director of research and forecasting group at Analytical Credit Rating agency Natalia Prokhorova.

GDP in Russia in November grew on 0,5% on a year basis; clearing the seasonal factor, the economy of the country grew on 0,1% on a month basis. For January — November GDP fell on 0,6%, that was mentioned in the monitoring of Ministry of Economic development.

«Indeed, macroeconomic statistics of the last several months allows to improve estimates on the dynamics of Russian economy. But anyway the dynamics in different sectors is very different as well», — said Prokhorova to RIA news.

«The main reason of better than expected macroeconomic dynamics is growth of oil production and export (according to 2016 year results, growth of oil production amounted to 2,4%). But export is now the only indicator, that lays down stable positive dynamics», — adds Prokhorova.

Ministry of Economic Development of Russia referring to Ministry of Energy reported, that oil export from Russia in January-November 2016 grew on 5,1% comparing with the corresponding period of 2015 and amounted to 233,7 million tons. Gas export from Russia in January-November 2016 amounted to 176,7 billion cubic meters, and including far-abroad countries, grew on 12,5% up to 146,7 billion cubic meters.

Ministry of Economic Development (MED) improved their forecast on Russian economy setback in 2016 up to 0,5% from 0,6% expected earlier, behind the improvement of forecast on oil prices. Forecast for Urals oil prices for the current year the Ministry specified up to $41,8 per barrel, and on a mid-year dollar exchange rate — up to 67,1 rubles. Earlier, MED predicted average Urals oil price for 2016 at $41 per barrel and mid-year dollar rate at 67,5 rubles.

In addition, MED improved their forecast on investments drop in Russian economy in 2016 up to 3% from 3,7%. MED forecast on inflation in 2016 was also improved up to 5,6% from 5,8%.

At the same time, MED depraved estimations of real household disposable income drop in 2016 up to 5,8% from 5,6%. Real household disposable income is the income excluding mandatory payments, adjusted for the consumer price index.

Prokhorova highlights, that private consumption, companies’ (investments) and state’s expenses continue to reduce. «But at a year end of 2017 we expect growth of Russian economy (plus 0,4% under the conservative forecast for oil prices), the main drivers of which will become completion of economic adaptation to the shocks of 2014-2015, growth of oil production and export (even under the scenario of oil production freeze for both halves of the year)», — says Prokhorova.

MED improved the estimates on industrial production growth for 2016 to 1% from 0,4%. Forecast for growth of real salaries in Russia was improved from 0,3% to 0,5%. At the same time, the Ministry depraved the estimates of the reduction of retail trade turnover in 2016 up to 4,9% from 4,6%.

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