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Russian economy has kept falling the 7th quarter in a raw


Russian economy has decreased on 0,4% in the third quarter, reported ROSSTAT. GDP falling is continuing 7 quarters in a raw, but has slowed down to the minimum.

GDP of Russia in the third quarter of 2016 has decreased on 0,4% comparing with the corresponding period last year, is reported in the reference about preliminary estimates of the GDP dynamics, that on Monday, November 14th, published ROSSTAT.

Thus, falling of Russian economy is continuing the 7th quarter in a raw (year to year). Herewith, is has slowed down to the minimum during this period. The most dramatic reduction was observed in the second quarter of 2015 (on 4,5%). in the second quarter of 2016 GDP reduced on 0,6%.

ROSSTAT isn’t publishing the data for GDP changing comparing with the previous quarter seasonally adjusted. According to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade evaluations, GDP in the third quarter grew on 0,1-0,2% by the second quarter with the elimination of seasonal factors, said the director of the consolidated Department of macroeconomic forecasting of Ministry of economic development Kirill Tremasov, reported «RIA News». Overall, in 2016 GDP decline, as expected in the government, might amount to 0,6 %.

Foreign Trade Bank has also documented quarter growth of GDP, but merely on 0,1%. Insignificant growth has also noted Central Bank.

The authorities are expecting the beginning of economy growth in 2017. Ministry of economic development in the initial forecast is expecting growth on 0,6%, in 2017 it has to amount to 1,7%, and in 2019 — 2,1% according to the forecast of Central Bank, GDP growth the following year will amount to 0,5-1%, in 2018 and 2019 — 1,5-2% accordingly.

EBRD is looking at Russian economy perspectives from the bright side. According to its forecast, GDP in 2017 will grow on 1,2% ( according to evaluations for 2016 its expectations correspond with forecast of Ministry of economic development). But without «significant reforms», warned EBRD, growth will remain low — only on 1-2% a year, the reasons for that — low investments and obsolescence of production capacities.

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