To balance the budget Russia needs oil for $69 per barrel. According to Bloomberg report, oil producing countries need different oil costs to balance the budgets.
Therefore, according to analysts ' estimates of Natixis SA, Russia needs oil to cost $69 per barrel. Last month Russia came to daily production of 11,3 mln barrels – the index is compared to the highest level of production in Soviet Union. Refusal of Russia to reduce production might put the whole deal of OPEC into question.
Iran has increased the production on 880 thousand barrels per day after easing sanctions, and is aspiring to get back its share on the market. In April Iran refused to join efforts of Russia and OPEC in freezing oil production down, that encouraged Saudi Arabia to foil a plan at a last minute. Iran, that produces 11% of OPEC oil, will be able to balance the budget with $55,30 per barrel.
Iraq, that produces 14% of OPEC oil, needs oil for $58,30 per barrel. Iraq calls for the release of reduction of oil production, because the country is fighting against militants of ISIS (the organization is outlawed in Russia). But the country might change its position.
Saudi Arabia, that produces 31% of oil in the cartel, needs oil for $79,70 per barrel. Despite of huge reserves, the country is feeling the affect of low prices for the feed. The Minister of Energy of the country Khalid al-Falih has expressed optimism speaking of obtaining an agreement on production reduction, that will fasten the balance recovery on the market. With that, last week he softened his position, declaring that the prices will get stable regardless of OPEC interference.
In September OPEC surprised the markets reaching a preliminary agreement on the reduction of oil production to 32,5-33 mln barrels per day. With this background, the prices jumped higher than $50 per barrel. However, further the optimism was lost. On Wednesday the Ministers of OPEC at the meeting in Vienna have to reach an agreement, overcoming several obstacles. Down to the date, the mechanism of participation of Iran and Iraq in the agreement isn’t approved. Libya and Nigeria are exempt from supplies reduction, therefore they are putting a strain on the other members of the cartel. Last month OPEC supplies amounted to the record 33,6 mln barrels per day. Agreement of oil production reduction will not be of effect if it isn’t supported by the non -OPEC countries, such as Russia, think the members of the cartel. With that, Russia is only ready to freeze production on a current level.
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