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Dvorkovitch is playing hypocrite saying that $55 for oil is little


Vice—Premier Arkadiy Dvorkovitch said that the results of agreement with OPEC on reducing oil production didn't satisfy expectations of Russian government. Moscow planned that making an agreement would lead to the growth of oil prices to $60 per barrel. Experts are sure that Deputy PM is being economical with the truth. The current level of prices on black gold is generally not so bad. It is significantly higher than predicted in Russian budget level of $40. However, barrel may sink to this level in a month or two.

Sergey Agibalov, the head of the sector «Energy and Finance» at Energy and Finance Institute: «Most likely Arkadiy Dvorkovitch is dodging saying that the results of agreement with OPEC on reducing oil production didn't satisfy expectations of our government».

Just a month after signing of the Memorandum between the cartel and other producers of raw materials, the prices for «black gold» grew from $47 to $57. Naturally, in this situation American oil companies, specializing in production of shale hydrocarbons, significantly increased production. They got a chance to increase their production profitability, that before because of high production cost was almost negative. That didn't allow oil prices stabilize on the level of $60.

However, what we are witnessing now is rather a satisfactory result. The level of $60 would anyway not be kept for long — shale hydrocarbons producers of the USA in that case would open more wellsites and drop the prices at once. So, the current situation at mineral market can be considered fair and consistent.

But it’s is still early to predict how long oil will keep this price level. Negotiations between OPEC and other producers will continue in April as well as in May. Closer to summer will be made a decision whether there is a point in prolonging production «freezing». Far from every participant of the cartel is of one mind about the necessity of such decision. However, prerequisites to ensure that the Memorandum on production cuts will be extended for at least six months still remain.

In this case, the weight of evidence suggests that the cost of Russian currency will remain relatively stable, and dollar rate will not overdo the point of $60 rubles. Yet, such rosy moods may be spoiled by geopolitical factors, such as rocket strike of American military against Syria. If the same situation continues happening in the future, the economy of our country and investing climate in particular may experience serious pressure and as a result American currency notes will take the level of 62-64 rubles.

Mikhail Krutikhin, orientalist scholar, the partner of RusEnergy company: «Initially it was clear that signed at the end of last year by the major players of oil market agreement is a sham. Even if Russia claims that it is moving forward in this direction in reality isn’t carrying out its obligations. Ministry of Energy doesn’t dispose effective leverage on domestic field, which are able to persuade oilmen follow the chosen course. Every Russian oil company is reducing the production at its own risk not really counting on these actions being effective and profitable.»

«The same can be said about OPEC representatives. The situation in cartel seems messy and a complete mishmash. Everyone wants to keep his oil niche at the market. For instance, Saudi Arabia, the biggest player at global oil field constantly offers discount on its feedstock making it more attractive. Many other participants of the cartel follow the same scheme.

As a result, in one or two months oil prices have a risk to slip from current $55 to $40 and remain on this level till the end of the year. Therefore, the statement of the representatives of the Russian economic bloc about current prices for raw materials being not high enough, clearly smells of hypocrisy.»

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