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The Russians were predicted to be stuck in economic swamp


Economy of Russia froze on the level of 2015, GDP growth will be balancing on minimal values, and the standard of living will be decreasing. This was stated in the dialogue with “Lenta.ru” by Yakov Mirkin – the head of the Department of international markets and international relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO).

“My forecast: in the foreseeable future – the economy is in a swamp, rocking around zero expecting the next “black swans”, - said Mirkin. This way the expert commented the declaration of the Ministry of economic development, according to which GDP growth will start at the end of a current year.

Russian economy stays dependable from external factors, noted the expert. “The main “leash” is still a dollar rate and staple prices, also from an ability to maintain the volume of raw materials production.” – pointed Mirkin.

Upon that, the ruble is currently overvalued. “If it stays on the current level – 62-63 rubles for a dollar, that will become a deterrent, especially in the sphere of public financing”, - is sure the representative of IMEMO.

Economic development is scotched by high taxes, administrative expenses and very high interest rates, pointed Mirkin. The policy of Central Bank, according to Mirkin, has lead to the cost rise of the loans. “It’s the small business that suffers from this, in particular”, - he pointed.

Upon that, there is some success in defense establishment, the agricultural sector and some regions, but it’s unlikely, they will give rise to general economic growth, stated the expert. “Growth in agricultural sector of Russia was reached thanks to budgetary transfers, but in economic in general the same effect can be reached by decreasing taxes and interest rates”, - thinks Mirkin.

On October, 28 the Ministry of economic development published the forecast on socio-economic development of Russia, where main priorities of economic policy for the period from 2017 to 2019 are called import substitution and rising the standards of living of the Russians. It’s also said in the document, that economy of the country will move from stagnation to revitalization at the end of 2016.

On Otober, 20 experts of Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in their monitoring of socio-economic condition of Russia reported, that income of the Russians in the third quarter of 2016 fell down of 6,1 % comparing with the corresponding period last year. Such reduction of welfare in the period from July to September hasn’t been noted since 1999, they said.

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