For the first time in 4 years January currency trading on Russian stock began with strengthening of ruble positions. For the short week before Christmas dollar rate for the first time since July 2015 fell lower then 60rub/$. The game on strengthening of Russian currency is going on against recuperation of oil prices and maintained demand on ruble active assets from foreign investors.
The beginning of the new year appeared for ruble to be as successful as the end of 2016. On Monday, dollar rate again returned to the level lower than 61 rub/$, and on Wednesday for the first time from July 2015 the level of 60rub/$ was also left behind. At the end of Friday trading the dollar rate got to 59,47rub/$, that is 3 cop. higher then closing rates on Thursday, but 1,58 rubles lower than closing rates of the last trading day of 2016. Euro rate in a week dropped on 1,53 rubles up to 62,85rub/€, that is only 50 cop.higher than 1,5 year maximum, set up that day. In the previous 3 years in the first week of January dollar rate grew on 0,24-2 rubles.
As a result, Russian ruble managed to remain a leader among the currencies of developing countries. According to Bloomberg, for the last week Russian currency boosted its position against dollar on 2,8% and with this rate took the first place among world currencies. Comparable boost demonstrated only Columbian peso, the rate of which grew on 2,7%. Most of currencies of other developing countries demonstrated growth on 0,3-1,2%.
The dominant factor of Russian currency growth is still oil. According to Reuters agency, on the first work day of the new year the cost of March contract for oil delivery by Brent got up to $58,37 per barrel – maximum index since July,15 2015. On Friday the prices stabilized around the level of $57 per barrel, having added 0,5% in a week. Russian Urals oil cost at the spot-market grew in a week on 2,2% up to $54,65 per barrel, that is only 1% lower than 1,5 years maximum, set on January, 3 ($55,2 per barrel). Data feeds of European types of oil returned to multi-month peaks against data of decrease in resources of the USA and information about the reduction of oil production in Saudi Arabia.
According to Ministry of Energy, oil reserves in the USA for the last week decreased up to 7,05 million barrels, though the analysts expected reduction only on 2 million barrels. At the same time Saudi Arabia reduced oil production according to agreement between OPEK countries and other oil producing countries. According to The Wall Street Journal, volume of oil production in the country reduced comparing with the index in October not less than on 486 thousand barrels per day. “The participants of a historical convention prove by deeds the agreement of reduction of oil production volumes, that had a positive effect on oil prices and demand for ruble active assets”, - said the Chief Investment Officer of April Capital Dmitry Skvortsov.
Demand for rubles remains form foreign investors as well, who also play on difference in rates of debt instruments at the Russian market and abroad, that allows to make profit on carry trade operations. High demand of ruble active assets prove estimates by “Renessans Capital” based on data of Portfolio Fund Research, according to which for the week, ended on January,4 foreign investors contributed in the funds, oriented on Russian shares, almost $90 million. “The holidays are over, and nothing terrible has happened, that’s why foreign investors kept on actively buying ruble active assets”, - said Dmitry Skvortsov.
The further growth of ruble will be advanced by domestic factors as well. In the following weeks will grow currency offer from Russian companies due to the beginning of tax period. Besides, in January the need in currency for foreign debt servicing is insignificant. According to Bank of Russia, if in December Russian companies serviced the debts on $18 billion, then in January the payments will amount to $4 billion only.
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